Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego.
Ph.D. from New York University, previously taught at the University of Pittsburgh.
Research interests: comparative politics, positive political theory, political economy, Latin America, Argentine politics. Topics: political risk and asset prices, statutory policy-making, legislative politics, sovereign borrowing, electoral forensics, civil war exposure, sports analytics.
POLI 229: Graduate Comparative Politics - Political Risk and Asset Prices (Syllabus)
Research
Books
Ruling by Statute, Cambridge University Press, 2010.
La Nueva Economia Politica, Eudeba, 1998 (co-edited with Mariano Tommasi).
Political Economy
Options Markets as Political Forecasts: Insights from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race, unpublished.
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Mitigating Policy Uncertainity: What Financial Markets Reveal About Firm-Level Lobbying, with Kristy Buzard and Nathan Canen, forthcoming in the American Journal of Political Science.
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Tax havens and income inequality in host countries, with Glen Biglaiser, Ibrahim Kocaman, and Ronald McGauvran, forthcoming in
Socio-Economic Review.
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The Real-Time Impact of Political Risk on Market Valuations: Evidence from Peru, with Juan P. Micozzi, Patricio Navia, Pablo Pinto, Journal of Risk and Financial Markets 2024.
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The Value of Legal Recourse in Sovereign Bond Markets: Evidence from Argentina, with Glen Biglaiser, Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 2024.
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Fear and Loathing on Wall Street: Electoral Risk Hedging in the United States (1986-2020), Journal of Political Economy and Political Institutions 2023.
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Political Shocks and Asset Prices: Evidence from Argentina, with Daniel Carnahan, PSRM 2022.
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Electoral Uncertainty and Financial Volatility: Evidence from Two-Round Presidential Races in Emerging Markets, with Daniel Carnahan, Economics & Politics 2021.
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Executive Constraint and Sovereign Debt: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Argentina during the Baring Crisis, with Gary Cox, Comparative Political Studies 2018.
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Political Institutions and Sovereign Borrowing: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Argentina, Public Choice 2013.
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Sovereign Debt and Regime Type: Re-considering the Democratic Advantage, with Emily Beaulieu and Gary Cox, International Organization 2012.
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Coalition Governments and Sovereign Debt Crises, Economics & Politics 2009.
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Do Countries Have a Democratic Advantage?, Comparative Political Studies 2005.
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Conflict and Violence
The Logic of Cronyism in State Violence: Evidence from Labor Repression During Argentina's Last Dictatorship, with Esteban Klor and Shanker Satyanath, Journal of the European Economic Association 2021.
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Civil War Exposure and Violence, with Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, Economics & Politics 2011.
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[NBER Working Paper #13968]
Suffrage Reform
Reassessing the Link between Revolutionary Threats and Democratization, Journal of Historical Political Economy 2024.
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The Political Economy of Suffrage Reform: The Great Reform Act of 1832, with Gary Cox, Adriane Fresh, Journal of Historical Political Economy 2023.
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Suffrage Extension and Financial Volatility: Reconsidering the Great Reform Act, with Gary Cox, Journal of Historical Political Economy 2022.
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Diversity
Heterogeneity and Team Performance, with Keith Ingersoll, Edmund Malesky, Journal of Sports Analytics 2017.
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Political Institutions
Executive-Legislative Relations, in Routledge Handbook 2015.
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Law Making, in Oxford Handbook 2014.
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Policy differences among parliamentary and presidential systems, forthcoming in Oxford Handbook of Public Choice.
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Voting in the Bicameral Congress: Large Majorities as a Signal of Quality, with Matias Iaryczower, Gabriel Katz, Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 2013.
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Political Prowess or Lady Luck? Evaluating Chief Executives' Legislative Success Rates, Journal of Politics 2009.
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Government Coalitions and Legislative Success Under Presidentialism and Parliamentarism, with Adam Przeworski, Jose Antonio Cheibub, British Journal of Political Science 2004.
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Federalism
Federalism, Argentine-Style, with Mariano Tommasi, Pablo Spiller, Cambridge University Press 2007.
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Fiscal Federalism in Argentina: Policies, Politics, and Institutional Reform, with Pablo Sanguinetti, Mariano Tommasi, Economia 2001.
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An 'Incomplete-Contracts' Approach to Intergovernmental Transfer Systems in Latin America, with Mariano Tommasi, World Bank 2000.
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Why is Argentina's Fiscal Federalism so Inefficient? Entering the Labyrinth, with Mariano Tommasi, Journal of Applied Economics 1999.
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Politics of Latin America
Constituency Effects and Legislative Dissent under Closed-List PR, with Eduardo Aleman, Juan P. Micozzi, Pablo Pinto, Latin American Politics and Society 2020.
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Disentangling the Role of Ideology and Partisanship in Legislative Voting: Evidence from Argentina, with Eduardo Aleman, Juan P. Micozzi, Pablo Pinto, Legislative Studies Quarterly 2018.
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An empirical stochastic model of Argentina's Impossible Game (1955-1966), with Juan P. Micozzi, Journal of Theoretical Politics 2016.
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Using Joint Scaling to Study Ideology and Representation: Evidence from Latin America, Political Analysis 2015.
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Political Realignment and Democratic Breakdown in Argentina, 1916-1930, with Eduardo Aleman, Party Politics 2014.
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Fraudulent Democracy? An Analysis of Argentina's Infamous Decade using Supervised Machine Learning, Political Analysis 2011.
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Recovering a Basic Space from Elite Surveys: Evidence from Latin America, Legislative Studies Quarterly 2009.
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Legislative Preferences, Political Parties, and Coalition Unity in Chile, with Eduardo Aleman, Comparative Politics 2007.
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Amateur Legislators-Professional Politicians: The Consequences of Party-Centered Electoral Rules in a Federal System, with Mark P. Jones, Pablo Spiller, Mariano Tommasi, American Journal of Political Science 2002.
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