Allais (1953) posed a hypothetical pair of decision problems:

Pair 1
Choice P:    $1,000 with probability 1 versus
Choice Q:    $1,000 with probability .89
                    $5,000 with probability .10
                    $0 with probability .01

Pair 2
Choice R:    $1,000 with probability .11
                    $0 with probability .89
Choice S:    $5,000 with probability .10
                    $0 with probability .90

*If people acted in accordance with expected value theory, how would they choose in each of these two pairs of choices and why?
*How do most people actually choose when given these two choices?
What is a certainty effect?
What is a framing effect? Why are framing effects considered irrational?
What is the sunk cost fallacy?
How does the pi function in prospect theory explain certainty effects?
What is regret theory and what sorts of effects was it proposed to explain?
What is the availability heuristic? Describe an experiment or phenomenon that suggests people use the availability heuristic in estimating probability.
What is hindsight bias? Has hindsight bias been established experimentally?
How are causal schemas used to evaluate the probability of events?
What is anchoring and adjustment? Describe one demonstration of the use of this heuristic.
Is there any evidence that suggests decision making is related to the construction of explanations?
What is satisficing? Is it an optimal strategy?
*Is human decision making behavior rational? Formulate one argument for rationality (viz. human decision making behavior is rational) and one argument against it (human decision making behavior is not rational).
What's the difference between a valid conclusion and a true conclusion?
In a valid argument, could it ever be the case that the premises are true and the conclusion is false?
What is 'affirming the consequent'? Is it a valid deductive reasoning strategy? Is it ever a strong inductive reasoning strategy?
What is the structure of the modus ponens argument?
What is the structure of the modus tollens argument?
Do people usually do better on modus ponens or modus tollens?
What are two different (logical) readings for the word "if"? (Be sure you know the difference between them.)
What is the Wason Selection task? If given a particular selection task, be sure you can say what choices people are likely to pick to verify a given rule.
Is the Wason Selection task susceptible to content effects? Explain why or why not.
What is a categorical syllogism?
What is the atmosphere hypothesis? Describe an atmosphere effect.
Does the atmosphere hypothesis predict the following argument will be easy or hard for people?
    Some B are A.
    No C are B.
    Therefore, Some A are not C.
Do people find this argument easy or hard (according to Johnson-Laird and Steedman, 1978)? What does this imply about the atmosphere hypothesis?
What's the conversion hypothesis?
What is a belief bias effect?
What is a figural effect?
Be sure you understand how models are constructed in the Model Theory of Syllogistic Reasoning.
According to the model theory, how do people make the judgment that a particular argument is valid?
How does model theory account for errors in reasoning?
What evidence is there for model theory?
Why do we need constraints on induction?
How do expectations constrain induction? temporal contiguity? similarity? frequency? framing?
Do people use categories to constrain induction? Do children use categories to constrain induction?
What are 3 constraints on analogical reasoning?
In analogical reasoning, are attributes or structural relations more important?
If given an analogy, be sure you can list the mappings between the source and the target analogs.
What is Duncker's radiation (tumor) problem? (Be sure you know the solution.)
What is schema induction? What evidence is there that schema induction helps people draw particular analogies?
What aspect of analogical reasoning is most influenced by superficial similarities between the source and the target?
What aspect of analogical reasoning is most influenced by structural similarities between the source and the target?
What sort of experimental evidence supports claims about which aspects of analogical reasoning are most sensitive to superficial versus structural similarities between the source and the target?
What's the relationship between metaphor and analogy?
What is a mental space?
What is conceptual blending?
What are the 3 spaces in the primitive waiting room blend discussed in class?
What is the emergent structure in the "walking time bomb" blend?