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| Prof. Craig McKenzie | Office: 2564A McGill Annex | Hrs: M & W, 2:00 - 3:00 |
| Phone: 534-8075 | E-mail: cmckenzie@ucsd.edu | http://psy.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/ |
| TA: Minna Ng | E-mail: mng@psy.ucsd.edu | Hrs: T & Th, 9:45 - 10:45, B505 McGill Annex |
Textbook: Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, by Reid Hastie & Robin M. Dawes
Course Overview: Choosing among uncertain options is traditionally seen as influenced by two factors: The utility of each option's outcomes (i.e., how much you like the outcomes) and the subjective probability of the outcomes (i.e., how strongly you believe the outcomes will occur). The course first examines theories of decision making under uncertainty, where both utility and probability play a role. We will then discuss subjective probability and utility as independent topics.
Exams: There are 2 exams, consisting of multiple choice and short essay questions. The second (final) exam is not cumulative. Expect about 20% of the questions on each exam to cover reading material not covered in lecture. The dates of the exams and their point values are:
First Exam: Tuesday, July 15 (week 3): 50 points
Final Exam: Thursday, July 31 (week 5): 50 points
Anyone who misses an exam receives zero points unless a valid excuse is verified, in which case the make-up exam may consist entirely of essay questions.
Grading: Your final grade will be determined by simply adding up your two exam scores and seeing where you stand relative to your peers. The mean total score will be a B-. Roughly, the top 10% will receive an A, the next 10% an A-, the next 40% some sort of a B. These percentages do not take into account extra credit.
Extra Credit: You can receive extra credit through participating in psychology experiments (to be explained in class). You will receive one point for each hour of credit, 3 points maximum. You must earn at least a C- for extra credit to count.
Overheads Available: The text overheads will be available from my URL (listed at the top of the syllabus). They should be posted within 24 hours after a lecture.
Probable topics and reading for each exam:
First Exam: Expected Value Theory; Expected Utility Theory; Prospect Theory; reason-based choice; heuristics and biases; overconfidence (chaps 1, 2, 12, 13, 4, 5, 6, 7).
Final Exam: Bayesian inference; hindsight bias; learning from feedback; hypothesis testing; perception of randomness; decision aids; utility (chaps 8, 9, 3, 14, 10, 11).
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