----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- log: C:\temp\determinants_nuke_Jo&Gartzke.log log type: text opened on: 23 Sep 2006, 15:56:28 . *creating time-dependence variables; . sort ccode1 year; . gen count1=0; . replace count1=count1[_n-1]+1 if ccode1==ccode1[_n-1] & nuk_apl==0; (5652 real changes made) . la var count1 "# years before ap=1"; . sort ccode1 year; . gen count2=0; . replace count2=count2[_n-1]+1 if ccode1==ccode1[_n-1] & nuk_apl[_n-1]==1 & nuke_dfl==0; (224 real changes made) . la var count2 "# years after ap=1 & before df=1"; . sort ccode1 year; . gen temp1=count1; . replace temp1=temp1[_n-1]+1 if nuk_apl==1 & nuk_apl[_n-1]==0 & ccode1==ccode1[_n-1]; (24 real changes made) . sort ccode1 year; . gen temp2=count2; . replace temp2=temp2[_n-1]+1 if nuke_dfl==1 & nuke_dfl[_n-1]==0 & ccode1==ccode1[_n-1]; (9 real changes made) . replace temp2=0 if ccode==560 & year==1990; (1 real change made) . la var temp1 "# years before apl=1"; . la var temp2 "# years after apl=1 & before dfl=1"; . drop count1 count2; . ren temp1 count1; . ren temp2 count2; . *creating trichotomy of nuclear threat; . generate n_threat =0; . replace n_threat = 1 if r_nukep ==1; (463 real changes made) . replace n_threat = 2 if r_nukeb ==1; (302 real changes made) . *creating trichotomy of democracy; . generate tri_demo1 = democ; (645 missing values generated) . generate tri_demo2 = democ; (645 missing values generated) . replace tri_demo1 = 0; (3435 real changes made) . replace tri_demo1 = 1 if democ >=4 & democ <=7; (586 real changes made) . replace tri_demo2 = 0; (3435 real changes made) . replace tri_demo2 = 1 if democ >=8; (2294 real changes made) . *Model 1(Nuclear Weapons Program); . probit nuk_apl nuk7set1 new_econ l_year_t > ln_ri_t r_nukep nuke_a_d d_isol ln_xst1 democ npt_rati npt_eff majpow regpowt count1, robust cluster(ccode1); Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1460.5936 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -507.57283 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -338.34338 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -278.37366 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -259.87236 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -256.84753 Iteration 6: log likelihood = -256.71238 Iteration 7: log likelihood = -256.71187 Probit estimates Number of obs = 4697 Wald chi2(14) = 644.50 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -256.71187 Pseudo R2 = 0.8242 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on ccode1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust nuk_apl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- nuk7set1 | .4836467 .0792077 6.11 0.000 .3284024 .638891 new_econ | 1.48263 1.944495 0.76 0.446 -2.328511 5.293771 l_year_t | 1.055037 .2506145 4.21 0.000 .563842 1.546233 ln_ri_t | .7002055 .25807 2.71 0.007 .1943976 1.206013 r_nukep | -.9140483 .3644407 -2.51 0.012 -1.628339 -.1997576 nuke_a_d | -.0976412 .3057702 -0.32 0.749 -.6969397 .5016573 d_isol | -.0601959 .438078 -0.14 0.891 -.9188129 .7984211 ln_xst1 | -.1479527 .0957213 -1.55 0.122 -.3355629 .0396576 democ | -.0262154 .0219774 -1.19 0.233 -.0692902 .0168594 npt_rati | -.7809309 .3631045 -2.15 0.031 -1.492603 -.0692592 npt_eff | .0051981 .0037806 1.37 0.169 -.0022118 .0126081 majpow | 2.000029 .3882118 5.15 0.000 1.239148 2.76091 regpowt | 1.549146 .2356791 6.57 0.000 1.087223 2.011068 count1 | -.1132394 .0118902 -9.52 0.000 -.1365438 -.089935 _cons | -6.354261 1.001082 -6.35 0.000 -8.316346 -4.392176 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 480 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . predict p, p; (1630 missing values generated) . *LR test for nuke program; . test nuk7set1 new_econ l_year_t; ( 1) nuk7set1 = 0.0 ( 2) new_econ = 0.0 ( 3) l_year_t = 0.0 chi2( 3) = 61.20 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 . test ln_ri_t r_nukep nuke_a_d d_isol; ( 1) ln_ri_t = 0.0 ( 2) r_nukep = 0.0 ( 3) nuke_a_d = 0.0 ( 4) d_isol = 0.0 chi2( 4) = 8.62 Prob > chi2 = 0.0713 . test ln_xst1 democ; ( 1) ln_xst1 = 0.0 ( 2) democ = 0.0 chi2( 2) = 4.88 Prob > chi2 = 0.0872 . test npt_rati npt_eff; ( 1) npt_rati = 0.0 ( 2) npt_eff = 0.0 chi2( 2) = 5.54 Prob > chi2 = 0.0627 . test majpow regpowt; ( 1) majpow = 0.0 ( 2) regpowt = 0.0 chi2( 2) = 53.83 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 . *preparing the method of recycling; . generate b_nuk7set1 = nuk7set1; . generate b_new_econ = new_econ; (468 missing values generated) . generate b_l_year_t = l_year_t; . generate b_ln_ri_t = ln_ri_t; (8 missing values generated) . generate b_r_nukep = r_nukep; . generate b_nuke_a_d = nuke_a_d; . generate b_d_isol = d_isol; (529 missing values generated) . generate b_ln_xst1 = ln_xst1; (688 missing values generated) . generate b_democ = democ; (645 missing values generated) . generate b_majpow = majpow; . generate b_regpowt = regpowt; . generate b_npt_rati = npt_rati; . generate b_npt_eff = npt_eff; . sum nuk7set1 new_econ l_year_t ln_ri_t r_nukep nuke_a_d d_isol ln_xst1 democ npt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- nuk7set1 | 6327 2.806859 2.725275 0 7 new_econ | 5859 .0091543 .0390237 0 .5799933 l_year_t | 6327 3.360427 .6609563 .6931472 4.007333 ln_ri_t | 6319 .2033398 .5245587 0 3.239901 r_nukep | 6327 .0731784 .2604498 0 1 nuke_a_d | 6327 .3121543 .463409 0 1 d_isol | 5798 .2742511 .2466739 0 .939759 ln_xst1 | 5639 .3950368 .7129883 0 4.454347 democ | 5682 3.532559 4.261115 0 10 npt_eff | 6327 39.81448 35.07844 0 84.15301 . *Recycling for nuke capability; . replace nuk7set1 = 0 if nuk7set1 ~=.; (4301 real changes made) . predict snuk7set1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum snuk7set1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snuk7set1 | 4697 .0100203 .0476281 4.75e-20 .6367388 . drop snuk7set1; . replace nuk7set1 = 2.827428 if nuk7set1 ~=.; nuk7set1 was byte now float (6327 real changes made) . predict mnuk7set1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mnuk7set1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mnuk7set1 | 4697 .0455796 .1477014 5.50e-15 .9570315 . drop mnuk7set1; . replace nuk7set1 = 7 if nuk7set1 ~=.; (6327 real changes made) . predict xnuk7set1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xnuk7set1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnuk7set1 | 4697 .1882291 .2950871 5.68e-09 .9999062 . drop xnuk7set1; . replace nuk7set1 = b_nuk7set1; (5186 real changes made) . drop b_nuk7set1; . *Recyling for economic capacity; . replace new_econ = 0 if new_econ ~=.; (5852 real changes made) . predict snew_econ, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum snew_econ; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snew_econ | 4697 .0937515 .2609324 9.81e-20 .9998447 . drop snew_econ; . replace new_econ = .0090848 if new_econ ~=.; (5859 real changes made) . predict mnew_econ, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mnew_econ; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mnew_econ | 4697 .0941799 .2614999 1.11e-19 .9998525 . drop mnew_econ; . replace new_econ = .5799933 if new_econ ~=.; (5859 real changes made) . predict xnew_econ, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xnew_econ; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnew_econ | 4697 .1268963 .2914475 1.74e-16 .999996 . drop xnew_econ; . replace new_econ = b_new_econ; (5858 real changes made) . drop b_new_econ; . *Recyling for diffusion; . replace l_year_t = .6931472 if l_year_t ~=.; (6327 real changes made) . predict sl_year_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sl_year_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sl_year_t | 4697 .0145278 .0665652 4.10e-36 .6018162 . drop sl_year_t; . replace l_year_t = 3.400307 if l_year_t ~=.; (6327 real changes made) . predict ml_year_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum ml_year_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- ml_year_t | 4697 .0942972 .2565793 2.81e-22 .9990778 . drop ml_year_t; . replace l_year_t = 4.043051 if l_year_t ~=.; (6327 real changes made) . predict xl_year_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xl_year_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xl_year_t | 4697 .1228073 .2848034 1.65e-19 .9999254 . replace l_year_t = b_l_year_t; (6327 real changes made) . drop xl_year_t b_l_year_t; . *Recyling for conventional threat; . replace ln_ri_t = 0 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (1125 real changes made) . predict sln_ri_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sln_ri_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sln_ri_t | 4697 .081336 .240616 9.82e-20 .9995548 . drop sln_ri_t; . replace ln_ri_t = .1996342 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (6319 real changes made) . predict mln_ri_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mln_ri_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mln_ri_t | 4697 .0858128 .2470775 3.48e-19 .9997327 . drop mln_ri_t; . replace ln_ri_t = 3.239901 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (6319 real changes made) . predict xln_ri_t, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xln_ri_t; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xln_ri_t | 4697 .2265018 .3267791 7.56e-12 1 . replace ln_ri_t = b_ln_ri_t; (6318 real changes made) . *Recyling for nuke threat; . replace r_nukep = 0 if r_nukep ~=.; (463 real changes made) . predict sr_nukep, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sr_nukep; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sr_nukep | 4697 .1025118 .2749331 9.82e-20 .9999983 . replace r_nukep = 1 if r_nukep ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xr_nukep, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xr_nukep; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xr_nukep | 4697 .0773079 .2384009 1.55e-23 .9999062 . replace r_nukep = b_r_nukep; (5864 real changes made) . *Recyling for nuke defender; . replace nuke_a_d = 0 if nuke_a_d ~=.; (1975 real changes made) . predict snuke_a_d, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum snuke_a_d; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snuke_a_d | 4697 .0957687 .2643217 2.38e-19 .9999062 . replace nuke_a_d = 1 if nuke_a_d ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xnuke_a_d, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xnuke_a_d; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnuke_a_d | 4697 .0927404 .2604606 9.82e-20 .9998624 . replace nuke_a_d = b_nuke_a_d; (4352 real changes made) . *Recyling for diplomatic isolation; . replace d_isol = 0 if d_isol ~=.; (4538 real changes made) . predict sd_isol, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sd_isol; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sd_isol | 4697 .0953268 .2638684 1.41e-19 .9999111 . replace d_isol = .271024 if d_isol ~=.; (5798 real changes made) . predict md_isol, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum md_isol; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- md_isol | 4697 .0948184 .2632289 1.22e-19 .9999051 . replace d_isol = .939759 if d_isol ~=.; (5798 real changes made) . predict xd_isol, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xd_isol; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xd_isol | 4697 .0935747 .2616316 8.45e-20 .9998887 . replace d_isol = b_d_isol; (5793 real changes made) . *Recyling for domestic unrest; . replace ln_xst1 = 0 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (1686 real changes made) . predict sln_xst1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sln_xst1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sln_xst1 | 4697 .0982021 .2687637 1.06e-18 .9999062 . replace ln_xst1 = .3939818 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (5639 real changes made) . predict mln_xst1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mln_xst1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mln_xst1 | 4697 .0964238 .2666755 6.34e-19 .999882 . replace ln_xst1 = 4.454347 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (5639 real changes made) . predict xln_xst1, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xln_xst1; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xln_xst1 | 4697 .0794771 .2415452 2.50e-21 .9989519 . replace ln_xst1 = b_ln_xst1; (5638 real changes made) . *Recyling for democracy; . replace democ = 0 if democ ~=.; (2790 real changes made) . predict sdemoc, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sdemoc; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sdemoc | 4697 .0984332 .2677237 6.51e-19 .9999062 . replace democ = 3.644042 if democ ~=.; democ was byte now float (5682 real changes made) . predict mdemoc, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mdemoc; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mdemoc | 4697 .0954194 .2641628 2.76e-19 .9998636 . replace democ = 10 if democ ~=.; (5682 real changes made) . predict xdemoc, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xdemoc; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xdemoc | 4697 .0903798 .2576234 6.08e-20 .9997428 . replace democ = b_democ; (4475 real changes made) . *Recyling for NPT membership; . replace npt_rati = 0 if npt_rati ~=.; (2510 real changes made) . predict snpt_rati, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum snpt_rati; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snpt_rati | 4697 .1030177 .2738622 9.02e-17 .9999062 . drop snpt_rati; . replace npt_rati = 1 if npt_rati ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xnpt_rati, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xnpt_rati; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnpt_rati | 4697 .0795604 .2395786 9.82e-20 .9984334 . replace npt_rati = b_npt_rati; (3817 real changes made) . *Recyling for NPT system effect; . replace npt_eff = 0 if npt_eff ~=.; (3849 real changes made) . predict snpt_eff, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum snpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snpt_eff | 4697 .0884457 .2522149 2.10e-21 .9995546 . replace npt_eff = 42.55004 if npt_eff ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict mnpt_eff, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum mnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mnpt_eff | 4697 .0956311 .2617791 1.68e-20 .999803 . replace npt_eff = 84.153 if npt_eff ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xnpt_eff, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnpt_eff | 4697 .1032028 .2703981 1.23e-19 .9999152 . replace npt_eff = b_npt_eff; (6327 real changes made) . *Recyling for major power status; . replace majpow = 0 if majpow ~=.; (278 real changes made) . predict smajpow, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum smajpow; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- smajpow | 4697 .0773689 .2175163 9.82e-20 .9935928 . replace majpow = 1 if majpow ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xmajpow, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xmajpow; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xmajpow | 4697 .2104857 .3240864 1.15e-12 .9999964 . replace majpow = b_majpow; (6049 real changes made) . *Recyling for regional power status; . replace regpowt = 0 if regpowt ~=.; (296 real changes made) . predict sregpowt, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum sregpowt; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sregpowt | 4697 .0891327 .2525995 9.82e-20 .9999062 . replace regpowt = 1 if regpowt ~= .; (6327 real changes made) . predict xregpowt, p; (1630 missing values generated) . sum xregpowt; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xregpowt | 4697 .1627211 .3101327 4.13e-14 .9999999 . replace regpowt = b_regpowt; (6031 real changes made) . *End of the analysis of nuke program; . *Start of the analysese of nuke possession; . *Model 2-2(Non-Censored Model); . probit nuke_dfl nuk7set1 new_econ l_year_t > ln_ri_t r_nukep nuke_a_d d_isol ln_xst1 democ npt_eff majpow regpowt count2, robust cluster(ccode1); Iteration 0: log likelihood = -956.27602 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -297.70828 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -201.45621 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -157.88924 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -140.96795 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -135.20467 Iteration 6: log likelihood = -133.53906 Iteration 7: log likelihood = -133.18752 Iteration 8: log likelihood = -133.1588 Iteration 9: log likelihood = -133.15862 Probit estimates Number of obs = 4697 Wald chi2(13) = 201.58 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -133.15862 Pseudo R2 = 0.8608 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on ccode1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust nuke_dfl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- nuk7set1 | .60815 .2331556 2.61 0.009 .1511734 1.065127 new_econ | 6.548002 3.929371 1.67 0.096 -1.153424 14.24943 l_year_t | 1.950269 .6978168 2.79 0.005 .5825727 3.317964 ln_ri_t | 1.343737 .2578878 5.21 0.000 .8382861 1.849188 r_nukep | -2.153189 .6042003 -3.56 0.000 -3.3374 -.968978 nuke_a_d | -1.3794 .5758163 -2.40 0.017 -2.507979 -.2508206 d_isol | 1.695277 .8669797 1.96 0.051 -.0039724 3.394526 ln_xst1 | .4322375 .1199575 3.60 0.000 .1971252 .6673499 democ | .0665699 .0591409 1.13 0.260 -.0493442 .182484 npt_eff | .0006605 .0055161 0.12 0.905 -.0101508 .0114719 majpow | 4.692931 .7412407 6.33 0.000 3.240126 6.145736 regpowt | 1.545883 .494906 3.12 0.002 .5758848 2.515881 count2 | -.0652377 .0344398 -1.89 0.058 -.1327384 .0022631 _cons | -14.87206 2.477408 -6.00 0.000 -19.72769 -10.01643 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 2054 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *Model 2-1(Censored Model); . *Preparation for Model 2-1; . generate pn7set1 = nuk_apl*nuk7set1; . generate pnew_econ = nuk_apl*new_econ; (468 missing values generated) . generate pl_year_t = nuk_apl*l_year_t; . generate pln_ri_t = nuk_apl*ln_ri_t; (8 missing values generated) . generate pr_nukep = nuk_apl*r_nukep; . generate pr_nukeb = nuk_apl*r_nukeb; . generate pnuke_a_d = nuk_apl*nuke_a_d; . generate pd_isol = nuk_apl*d_isol; (529 missing values generated) . generate pln_xst1 = nuk_apl*ln_xst1; (688 missing values generated) . generate pdemoc = nuk_apl*democ; (645 missing values generated) . generate pnpt_eff =nuk_apl*npt_eff; . generate pmajpow = nuk_apl*majpow; . generate pregpowt = nuk_apl*regpowt; . generate nn_thre =0; . replace nn_thre = 1 if pr_nukep ==1; (231 real changes made) . replace nn_thre = 2 if pr_nukeb ==1; (167 real changes made) . *analysis for Model 2-1; . *droping all cases with no nuclear weapons program; . replace nuke_dfl = . if nuk_apl ==0; (5839 real changes made, 5839 to missing) . probit nuke_dfl pn7set1 pnew_econ pl_year_t > pln_ri_t pr_nukep pnuke_a_d pd_isol pln_xst1 pdemoc pnpt_eff pmajpow pregpowt count2, robust cluster(ccode1); Iteration 0: log likelihood = -302.57581 Iteration 1: log likelihood = -103.58501 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -67.227581 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -52.220831 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -40.939363 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -31.776101 Iteration 6: log likelihood = -27.70205 Iteration 7: log likelihood = -26.383907 Iteration 8: log likelihood = -26.103928 Iteration 9: log likelihood = -26.09354 Iteration 10: log likelihood = -26.093527 Probit estimates Number of obs = 440 Wald chi2(13) = 606935.30 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -26.093527 Pseudo R2 = 0.9138 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on ccode1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust nuke_dfl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- pn7set1 | .4274959 .4480353 0.95 0.340 -.450637 1.305629 pnew_econ | 110.5096 28.69662 3.85 0.000 54.26527 166.754 pl_year_t | 13.03596 3.801496 3.43 0.001 5.585162 20.48675 pln_ri_t | 2.729421 .4533389 6.02 0.000 1.840893 3.617949 pr_nukep | -5.004475 .8344565 -6.00 0.000 -6.63998 -3.36897 pnuke_a_d | -3.550246 .9018589 -3.94 0.000 -5.317857 -1.782635 pd_isol | .3903668 1.067912 0.37 0.715 -1.702701 2.483435 pln_xst1 | .1631659 .1287683 1.27 0.205 -.0892153 .4155471 pdemoc | .2708981 .1069706 2.53 0.011 .0612396 .4805567 pnpt_eff | -.0168551 .0352692 -0.48 0.633 -.0859816 .0522713 pmajpow | 7.489776 1.039664 7.20 0.000 5.452071 9.52748 pregpowt | 1.209603 .4980239 2.43 0.015 .2334945 2.185712 count2 | -.1474234 .0291116 -5.06 0.000 -.2044811 -.0903657 _cons | -53.8317 10.13206 -5.31 0.000 -73.69016 -33.97323 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 44 failures and 143 successes completely determined. . *LR test; . test pnew_econ pl_year_t pn7set1; ( 1) pnew_econ = 0.0 ( 2) pl_year_t = 0.0 ( 3) pn7set1 = 0.0 chi2( 3) = 42.50 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 . test pln_ri_t pr_nukep pnuke_a_d pd_isol; ( 1) pln_ri_t = 0.0 ( 2) pr_nukep = 0.0 ( 3) pnuke_a_d = 0.0 ( 4) pd_isol = 0.0 chi2( 4) = 59.40 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 . test pln_xst1 pdemoc; ( 1) pln_xst1 = 0.0 ( 2) pdemoc = 0.0 chi2( 2) = 15.63 Prob > chi2 = 0.0004 . test pnpt_eff; ( 1) pnpt_eff = 0.0 chi2( 1) = 0.23 Prob > chi2 = 0.6327 . test pmajpow pregpowt; ( 1) pmajpow = 0.0 ( 2) pregpowt = 0.0 chi2( 2) = 52.07 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 . *Preferation of recycling (Model 2-1); . generate bpn7set1 = pn7set1; . generate bpnew_econ = pnew_econ; (468 missing values generated) . generate bpl_year_t = pl_year_t; . generate bpln_ri_t = pln_ri_t; (8 missing values generated) . generate bpr_nukep = pr_nukep; . generate bpnuke_a_d = pnuke_a_d; . generate bpd_isol = pd_isol; (529 missing values generated) . generate bpln_xst1 = pln_xst1; (688 missing values generated) . generate bpdemoc = pdemoc; (645 missing values generated) . generate bpnpt_eff = pnpt_eff; . generate bpmajpow = pmajpow; . generate bpregpowt = pregpowt; . drop if nuke_dfl ==.; (5839 observations deleted) . sum pn7set1 pnew_econ pl_year_t pln_ri_t pd_isol pln_xst1 pdemoc pnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- pn7set1 | 488 6.512295 .8105139 3 7 pnew_econ | 480 .0715299 .112118 .00027 .5799933 pl_year_t | 488 3.436263 .5690728 1.098612 4.007333 pln_ri_t | 488 .7517005 .7213768 0 3.024949 pd_isol | 468 .2814245 .2494468 0 .939759 pln_xst1 | 462 1.017978 1.079964 0 4.454347 pdemoc | 487 5.162218 4.491003 0 10 pnpt_eff | 488 43.60191 34.46332 0 84.15301 . *Recycling for nuke capability; . replace pn7set1 = 3 if pn7set1 ~=.; (487 real changes made) . predict sn7set1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sn7set1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sn7set1p | 440 .5021047 .4785989 0 1 . replace pn7set1 = 6.534161 if pn7set1 ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict mn7set1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mn7set1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mn7set1p | 440 .5533748 .4787027 0 1 . replace pn7set1 = 7 if pn7set1 ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict xn7set1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xn7set1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xn7set1p | 440 .5604204 .476553 0 1 . replace pn7set1 = bpn7set1; (154 real changes made) . drop sn7set1p mn7set1p xn7set1p; . *Recyling for economic capacity; . replace pnew_econ = .00027 if new_econ ~=.; (480 real changes made) . predict snew_econp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum snew_econp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snew_econp | 440 .391 .4569652 0 1 . replace pnew_econ = .0751828 if new_econ ~=.; (480 real changes made) . predict mnew_econp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mnew_econp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mnew_econp | 440 .9071434 .2606698 3.04e-14 1 . replace pnew_econ = .5799933 if new_econ ~=.; (480 real changes made) . predict xnew_econp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xnew_econp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnew_econp | 440 1 0 1 1 . replace pnew_econ = bpnew_econ; (479 real changes made) . *Recyling for diffusion; . replace pl_year_t = 1.098612 if l_year_t ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict sl_year_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sl_year_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sl_year_tp | 440 .050429 .2146379 0 1 . replace pl_year_t = 3.459882 if l_year_t ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict ml_year_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum ml_year_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- ml_year_tp | 440 .5141869 .4883291 1.52e-34 1 . replace pl_year_t = 4.043051 if l_year_t ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict xl_year_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xl_year_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xl_year_tp | 440 .8219769 .3494754 2.12e-06 1 . replace pl_year_t = bpl_year_t; (488 real changes made) . *Recyling for conventional threat; . replace pln_ri_t = 0 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (309 real changes made) . predict sln_ri_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sln_ri_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sln_ri_tp | 440 .4773689 .4820275 0 1 . replace pln_ri_t = .7920272 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict mln_ri_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mln_ri_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mln_ri_tp | 440 .5571001 .4749813 0 1 . replace pln_ri_t = 3.239901 if ln_ri_t ~=.; (488 real changes made) . predict xln_ri_tp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xln_ri_tp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xln_ri_tp | 440 .8800527 .2940931 1.10e-10 1 . replace pln_ri_t = bpln_ri_t; (488 real changes made) . *Recyling for nuke threat; . replace pr_nukep = 0 if r_nukep ~=.; (231 real changes made) . predict sr_nukepp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sr_nukepp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sr_nukepp | 440 .6682802 .4443788 0 1 . replace pr_nukep = 1 if r_nukep ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict xr_nukepp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xr_nukepp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xr_nukepp | 440 .4117494 .4686004 0 1 . replace pr_nukep = bpr_nukep; (257 real changes made) . *Recyling for nuke defender; . replace pnuke_a_d = 0 if nuke_a_d ~=.; (142 real changes made) . predict snuke_a_dp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum snuke_a_dp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- snuke_a_dp | 440 .6146574 .457287 0 1 . replace pnuke_a_d = 1 if nuke_a_d ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict xnuke_a_dp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xnuke_a_dp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xnuke_a_dp | 440 .4556692 .476222 0 1 . replace pnuke_a_d = bpnuke_a_d; (346 real changes made) . *Recyling for diplomatic isolation; . replace pd_isol = 0 if d_isol ~=.; (400 real changes made) . predict sd_isolp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sd_isolp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sd_isolp | 440 .5491948 .4801785 0 1 . replace pd_isol = .2948614 if d_isol ~=.; (468 real changes made) . predict md_isolp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum md_isolp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- md_isolp | 440 .552984 .4793029 0 1 . replace pd_isol = .939759 if d_isol ~=.; (468 real changes made) . predict xd_isolp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xd_isolp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xd_isolp | 440 .561609 .4767824 0 1 . replace pd_isol = bpd_isol; (463 real changes made) . *Recyling for domestic unrest; . replace pln_xst1 = 0 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (271 real changes made) . predict sln_xst1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sln_xst1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sln_xst1p | 440 .546447 .4814834 0 1 . replace pln_xst1 = 1.059107 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (462 real changes made) . predict mln_xst1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mln_xst1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mln_xst1p | 440 .5518684 .480289 0 1 . replace pln_xst1 = 4.454347 if ln_xst1 ~=.; (462 real changes made) . predict xln_xst1p, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xln_xst1p; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xln_xst1p | 440 .5710373 .4737754 0 1 . replace pln_xst1 = bpln_xst1; (461 real changes made) . *Recyling for democracy; . replace pdemoc = 0 if democ ~=.; (299 real changes made) . predict sdemocp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sdemocp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sdemocp | 440 .491945 .4738689 0 1 . replace pdemoc = 5.445135 if democ ~=.; (487 real changes made) . predict mdemocp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mdemocp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mdemocp | 440 .553331 .475206 0 1 . replace pdemoc = 10 if democ ~=.; (487 real changes made) . predict xdemocp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xdemocp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xdemocp | 440 .6149304 .4489978 0 1 . replace pdemoc = bpdemoc; (338 real changes made) . *Recyling for NPT system; . replace pnpt_eff = 0 if pnpt_eff ~=.; (319 real changes made) . predict spnpt_eff, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum spnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- spnpt_eff | 440 .5846938 .4665617 0 1 . drop spnpt_eff; . replace pnpt_eff = 45.51803 if pnpt_eff ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict mpnpt_eff_nptp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum mpnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- mpnpt_eff_~p | 440 .5529884 .476495 0 1 . drop mpnpt_eff; . replace pnpt_eff = 84.153 if pnpt_eff ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict xpnpt_eff_nptp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xpnpt_eff; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xpnpt_eff_~p | 440 .529736 .480168 0 1 . drop xpnpt_eff; . replace pnpt_eff = bpnpt_eff; (488 real changes made) . drop bpnpt_eff; . *Recyling for major power status; . replace pmajpow = 0 if majpow ~=.; (242 real changes made) . predict smajpowp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum smajpowp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- smajpowp | 440 .3856333 .4563071 0 1 . replace pmajpow = 1 if majpow ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict xmajpowp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xmajpowp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xmajpowp | 440 .9017713 .2706481 3.10e-16 1 . replace pmajpow = bpmajpow; (246 real changes made) . *Recyling for regional power status; . replace pregpowt = 0 if regpowt ~=.; (53 real changes made) . predict sregpowtp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum sregpowtp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- sregpowtp | 440 .5435235 .4811796 0 1 . replace pregpowt = 1 if regpowt ~= .; (488 real changes made) . predict xregpowtp, p; (48 missing values generated) . sum xregpowtp; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- xregpowtp | 440 .5894835 .4652182 0 1 . replace pregpowt = bpregpowt; (435 real changes made) . log close; log: C:\temp\determinants_nuke_Jo&Gartzke.log log type: text closed on: 23 Sep 2006, 15:56:30 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------